The Green Bay Packers (6-3) finally beat Brett Favre for the first time ever when they beat these Minnesota Vikings (3-6) earlier this season. Now, they have a chance to drive one final nail into the Vikings coffin for this season.
The NFL betting lines list Green Bay as 3-point favorites with money line odds of -120 on the road, and a total set at 44.
To give you an idea of just how much the fortunes for these teams have changed since the first meeting this season, consider that the Green Bay Packers were only 2.5-point favorites at home for that game. Now, they are actually favored by a tad more than that at on the road at Minnesota.
So does that mean that the Minnesota Vikings hold all the line value this time around? Maybe, maybe not.
We feel what is more likely is that the Vikings were grossly overrated earlier on in the year, and this line this week is closer to reality. Then again, all three Minnesota victories this season have come here at home where they are 3-1, so even though this line may be more proper, it does not mean the Vikings can’t pull the upset.
Remember also that Minnesota was 9-0 SU in the Metrodome last season including their win in the playoffs, meaning that Favre is now 12-1 SU as the Vikings’ quarterback in this venue. Sure, two of the three home wins this season have been by exactly three points and they needed a minor miracle to come from behind to beat Arizona here two weeks ago, but Favre always has a flare for drama.
That said; the Minnesota defense has given the Vikes a chance to win those home games, as they are allowing only 17.2 points and 265.0 yards per game here while allowing 3.4 yards per rush and 6.2 yards per pass attempt. That fine run defense won’t come into play much vs. the Packers, but perhaps the pass defense can slow down Aaron Rodgers some.
Then again, Rodgers did throw for 295 yards in the first meeting at Green Bay without getting sacked once, and if Minnesota does not put at least some form of pressure on Rodgers, then their season will indeed be over after this game.
The bye week for Green Bay also hurts Minnesota’s cause, as the Packers only won 24-20 at home last month and Coach Mike McCarthy undoubtedly used the extra time to look for ways to improve that winning margin. This is one area where McCarthy usually excels, as he is now 4-0 ATS following the bye week since taking over as the Packer head coach.
This is a very difficult game to call, as Green Bay looks to have a physical edge, but Minnesota should play with a lot of emotion while trying to at least prolong their season; especially at home where they play so much better. Is McCarthy’s perfect record off of a bye the ultimate deciding factor here, or do you give consideration to the fact that the underdogs have gone 17-6 ATS in this series the last 23 meetings?
Stay tuned to find out.